Reconstruction of six decades of daily total solar shortwave irradiation in the Iberian Peninsula using sunshine duration records

摘要

Total global solar shortwave (G) irradiation and sunshine duration were recorded at nine Spanish stations located in the Iberian Peninsula. G irradiation under cloudless conditions was simulated by means of a radiative transfer model using satellite data as input. A method based on these cloudless simulations and sunshine duration records was developed to reconstruct G series. This model was validated against experimental data, providing a good agreement for cloudless skies (mean bias error of 0.4% and root mean square error of 5.8%). Monthly averages of modelled and measured G irradiation presented a mean bias error of 0.5% and a root mean square error of 3%. Differences between modelled and measured G irradiation were in agreement within the model uncertainties. The reconstruction model was applied to sunshine duration measurements, giving long-term G series at the nine locations. Monthly, seasonal, and annual G anomalies were calculated and analysed. Averaged series (using the nine locations) showed a statistically significant decrease in annual G from 1950 to the mid 1980s (-1.7%dc~(-1)) together with a significant increase from the mid 1980s to 2011 (l.6%dc~(-1)). The effect of uncertainty in the reconstructed series on statistically significant trends was studied.