Implications of previous space commercialization experiences for the reusable launch vehicle

摘要

The United States' 1994 National Space Transportation Policy directed the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to work with industry on the development of technologies required for a reusable launch vehicle (RLV). In the partnership that has evolved from that directive, NASA envisions its role as providing support for technological risk reduction and for developing space transportation to serve government needs. NASA officials assume that the development of an operational, commercial RLV will be carried out by the private sector without use of government funds. Under that scenario, the Federal government will simply become a customer for commercial RLV services. In evaluating the prospects for the development of a commercially viable RLV, it may be useful to examine "lessons learned" from previous space commercialization efforts―both those that succeeded and those that did not. It can be argued that several distinct streams of market and technological development may have to converge for successful commercialization of space systems to occur. Potential factors influencing the prospects for commercialization include the size and growth rate of the potential customer base, the extent to which a governmental customer exists to underpin the market, the development of associated "value-added" markets, the stability of governmental policies, the levels of technological and business risk, and the degree to which competitive markets exist. This paper examines two previous space commercialization experiences, evaluates the relative importance of the various factors that influence the prospects for success of commercialization efforts, and assesses the implications of those factors for the commercial viability of the proposed RLV.