Development of reliability-corrected cost model for Small Earth Observation satellites

摘要

In this study, a novel reliability-corrected cost model for estimating the development cost of highly agile small EO (Earth Observation) satellites is presented. In order to develop the cost model of highly agile small EO satellites, a database has been constructed consisting of 49 satellites carrying electro-optical payloads and having a launch mass between 100 kg and 1,000 kg that have either been developed or being developed within a time frame from 1991 to 2011. The cost model of top-down type was developed by analyzing the database statistically. The reliability-corrected CER (Cost Estimating Relationships) developed in this study implement multiple parameters-based complexity indexes. In addition, the Cost Correction Factor (CCF) and Low Cost Small Satellite (LCSS) adjustment factor were newly introduced as additional parameters for cost estimation. The reliability-corrected CERs for 26 EO satellites were used for verification of the cost model developed in this study. It was observed that there are approximately 7% of absolute average errors in the reliability-corrected CER. It is concluded that this cost model can provide cost estimates with a higher accuracy, as compared to conventional cost models such as USCM and SSCM. Finally, this paper also describes the results of cost estimation obtained by applying the developed cost model to highly agile small electro-optical satellites having specific performance requirements.