Four Questions for the 'Improbable War'

摘要

"As long as the US holds tight to its values and solves its problems at home," Andrew Nathan and Nathan Scobell have written in a well-regarded 2012 book, "it will be able to manage the rise of China." This sentiment admirably expresses the long-standing consensus of the Washington, DC foreign policy elite: by using a combination of economic engagement, military balancing, and diplomatic pressure, the US can socialize Chinese elites while checking Chinese power. In such a scenario, China will rise, but it will rise within the existing international system. And even were China to consider violating contemporary norms-say, against the use of force to resolve disputes-the military power of the US and its allies would be overwhelmingly sufficient to deter, defend, or defeat the transgression. China's rise, in short, need not threaten the status quo as long as the western powers deepen economic interdependence, preserve maritime supremacy, and maintain leadership of the international system.