IMPLEMENTATION OF FERTILIZER POLICY IN BANGLADESH UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS: AN APPLICATION OF MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS MODELING

摘要

The analysis of the effects of fertilizer pricing on fertilizer-intensive agriculture and farms behavior ought to be an important topic of research for agricultural and environmental economists in Bangladesh. Several possibilities for fertilizer policy have been debated, in particular for the pricing of fertilizer. Following this observation, this study contributes to that discussion by simulating the impact that various policies based upon the price of fertilizer could have on agricultural production. Specifically, the study analyzes the economic, social and environmental implications of alternative fertilizer policies using a multicriteria model of farmers' behavior under different scenarios. The future agricultural and fertilizer scenarios are described in terms of the combination of policy instruments, policy style and configuration of actors. For the purpose of scenario analysis, narratives and quantitative indicator values have been compiled for each scenario. The quantitative estimates are used as input values in the modeling of fertilizing systems under policy changes. The results show that the increase of fertilizer price causes almost similar impacts as observed in the status quo scenario. The results also stress that fertilizer pricing, as a single instrument for controlling fertilizer use is not a satisfactory tool for significantly reducing fertilizer consumption in agriculture.