Advances in Research and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones from 1963-2013

摘要

A review of progress over the past 50 years in observing and forecasting of tropical cyclones is presented. Tremendous progress has been made in track forecasting in the past 20 years with the improvement in numerical model guidance and the use of consensus forecasting, and this has contributed to a number of warning centers now issuing five-day track forecasts that are as accurate as three-day forecasts of a decade ago. Techniques are now available to specify the track forecast uncertainty for assessing the risk of a tropical cyclone. With the advent of five-day forecasts, a focus on improved understanding of formation has led to two field experiments. A recent advance has been in extended-range (5-30 days) forecasts of tropical cyclone events (formations and tracks) in the western North Pacific from the ECMWF 32-day ensemble predictions. This advance is a contribution to a goal of seamless forecasting from one day to a season for tropical cyclones. Little progress has been made in intensity forecasting, although the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project in the United States and recent field experiments may offer some future advances. Some advances in forecasting tropical cyclone impacts such as storm surge, surface waves, and precipitation have been achieved. Future opportunities for continued advances are possible such that improved warnings can lead to reductions in losses of lives and minimizing damages from tropical cyclones.