European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts Reading UK;
Marine Meteorology Division U.S.Naval Research Laboratory Monterey CA USA;
Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at Albany State University of New York Albany New York USA;
School of Energy and Environment City University of Hong Kong Hong Kong China;
Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological Agency Japan;
Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science and Center for Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques Pennsylvania State University University Park Pennsylvania USA;
tropical cyclones; forecast busts; predictability; ensemble sensitivity; adjoint modelling;