Consistent pathway analysis: a structured analytic method

摘要

Mistakes during criminal investigations are costly, leading to wrongful convictions, so it is helpful to employ rigorous analytic methods to help mitigate errors and biases. This paper introduces a new method to help make sense of a set of information, allowing thought processes to be externalised in a systematic and transparent manner. While this method is presented in a criminal investigation context, it can be applied to any situation where analysis of several hypotheses and evidence is required. Open source software was created and used to test the method empirically. A simulated criminal investigation was carried out by seventy-five trainee investigators, the results showed better conclusions were reached when using the method.