Mediation in Internationalized Ethnic Conflicts: Assessing the Determinants of a Successful Process

摘要

This article examines how internationalized ethnic conflicts, traditionally the most difficult form of conflict, can be managed and resolved. The case is made that mediation is particularly relevant in such contexts of intractable conflicts. The paper develops a framework of mediation and presents the significant features that may affect its outcome by examining an original data set on international mediation events. The findings from an analysis of 869 cases of mediation attempts in internationalized ethnic conflicts suggest that directive mediation strategies increase the probability of successful conflict management. Mediator experience also has a positive impact on successful management. Prolonged mediation and repeated efforts by the same mediator have a negative effect on the chances of a successful outcome.