MODELLING DELAYS IN BRIDGE CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS BASED ON THE LOGIT AND PROBIT REGRESSION

摘要

Construction projects, even exemplarily planned and organized, bear a risk of unforeseen events and problems which can result in completion of the works after the deadline, that is delays. The construction of bridges is an inseparable part of road and rail projects and construction and expansion of the transport network. The paper aims at finding a relationship between the independent variables characterizing bridge projects and the delays during their implementation. Two alternative models were proposed to solve the problem: logit and probit. The data set comprising road and rail bridges built in Poland in the last 12 years (2005 - 2017) was used to build the models. The evaluation, quality and accuracy parameters of proposed models were determined in the final part of the paper.