Still Bouncing and Being Bounced Along

摘要

As we move into the second quarter of 2003, we are at a very difficult time for the overall economy. The nation is facing stress on a number of fronts, any one of which could immediately disrupt the delicate balance in the market. In the meantime the economy will continue to struggle, as will the equity markets. In this environment real estate fundamentals will likely erode, but there is little danger of a major shock to the system. If certain trigger events do occur, it is likely that the market will slow down while various players assess the nature of damage and probable fall-out for the real estate sector. Once this occurs―and it might well be a prolonged event― the real estate market will function more efficiently. That is not to say that there is no further downside risk as we face the real prospect of a double-dip recession. Rather it suggests that the real estate market should continue to bounce along in response to external shocks, but that it should maintain its rather steady, if unspectacular, performance profiles. Thus 2003 should be interesting, with an active transactions market and continued investor interest.