A generalized model for static fatigue lifetime evaluation of optical fibers to reduce the model uncertainty

摘要

The mechanical reliability of silica-based optical fibers declines especially under the combination of applied stresses and severe chemical environment in service. It is of great concern to assess the mechanical reliability and lifetime based on the short-term accelerate testing and the relevant mechanism. The long-term lifetime prediction of optical fibers is sensitive to the form of kinetic model, yet no fair and common agreement has been reached on the best model. This study proposes a generalized lifetime model to search the best model in an expanded model space and hence can reduce model uncertainty. Following that, a procedure using the maximum likelihood estimation and the likelihood ratio test is conducted to determine the model structure. Furthermore, three sets of static fatigue lifetime data are used to illustrate the validity and superiority of the proposed framework. The result demonstrates that the proposed framework can reduce the uncertainty in model choice and is readily applicable to evaluation of static fatigue lifetime of optical fibers.