The persistent labour-market effects of the financial crisis

摘要

This article estimates the effects of the financial crisis on the Swedish labour market. Using an unobserved components model and an external forecast, we estimate a future path for the Nonaccelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU). Judging by this analysis, the labour market will be in equilibrium again in 2013. Linking the NAIRU to other labour-market variables through an estimated vector error correction model and population projections, it is found that this new equilibrium is associated with a smaller equilibrium labour force and lower equilibrium employment.