Do commercial sales move coincidentally with business cycles in Japan? a dynamic two-mode regression approach

摘要

This paper examines the validity of including wholesale and retail commercial sales in the coincident index of business conditions in Japan. Specifically, we consider the movement of gross domestic product (GDP) as a reference cycle, and investigate whether commercial sales move coincidentally with GDP by applying the dynamic two-mode regression approach. The results show that wholesale commercial sales are not justified as a component of the Japanese coincident index, but that retail commercial sales may be considered a legitimate component of the Japanese coincident index.