Nonlinear short-run adjustments in US stock market returns

摘要

Using the considerably powerful nonparametric cointegration tests proposed by Bierens (1997, 2004), we do not find any evidence indicative of the existence of rational bubbles in the US stock market during the long period of 1871 to 2002. In addition, with the application of a logistic smooth transition error-correction model designed to detect the nonlinear short-run adjustments to the long-run equilibrium, we also obtain substantial empirical evidence in favour of the so-called noise trader models where arbitrageurs are reluctant to immediately engage in trading when stock returns deviate insufficiently from their fundamental value.