中国经济增长与碳排放之间的长期均衡关系及其短期非线性调整

摘要

运用Hansen和Seo的两区制阈值协整理论,研究了1953—2010年中国经济增长与碳排放之间的关系及其关系的短期非线性调整。结果表明：经济增长与碳排放之间存在非线性协整关系;当两者的长期均衡关系出现短期偏离时,在正常区制中,主要依靠碳排放的调整使两者间关系恢复到长期均衡状态,在极端区制中,碳排放和经济增长都会向均衡状态做出调整,且碳排放的调整速度更快。%This paper applies the theory of two-regime threshold cointegration developed by Hansen and Seo to investigate the relationship between economic growth and carbon emission during 1953-2010 in China and its short-term nonlinear adjustment.The results show as follows：there exists a threshold co-integration relationship between economic growth and carbon emission;when the deviation from the long-run equilibrium between economic growth and carbon emission,short-run response is mainly executed by the adjustment of carbon emission in typical regime,while both economic growth and carbon emission are all moving toward long-term equilibrium in extreme regime,and the adjustment speed of carbon emission is faster than that of economic growth.