Moving to autarky, trade creation and home market effect: an exhaustive analysis of regional trade agreements in Africa

摘要

This article analyses the effects of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) on bilateral trade in Africa. A structural gravity equation is estimated over the period 1955-2014. The overall effect of RTAs on African trade is strong, but depending on the nature of the RTAs, there is a decreasing impact over time. While Economic Integration Agreements (EIAs) still favour trade in Africa, there was no trade creation coming from Free Trade Agreements between 1990 and 2014. However, the provisions of RTAs do not have a negative impact on trade: agreements that include behind-the-border policies do not significantly deter bilateral trade. To explain the declining impact of RTAs, we look at their redistributive impact between members states. There is no evidence that large countries disproportionally export diversified goods due to RTAs (no 'home effect'). Countries with a good international network ('hub effect') benefited more than other countries of RTAs between 1955 and 1990 but this is however less true on the most recent period (1990-2014).