The impacts of dual overconfidence behavior and demand updating on the decisions of port service supply chain: a real case study from China

摘要

In this paper, the impacts of dual overconfidence behavior and demand updating on the decisions of port service supply chain are studied with the real case study method. A port service supply chain consists of Tianjin Port, a shipping company, and a customer is investigated. A dual overconfidence behavior-based decision model under a demand updating background is built. Then the effects of Tianjin Port's overconfidence (TPO) behavior and the shipping company's overconfidence (SCO) behavior on the port service level (PSL), carrying volume and utilities are analyzed. Numerical analysis with real case data is conducted. Several important conclusions are obtained in this paper. Firstly, it is identified that theSCOleads to a decrease in the shipping company's utilities, while dual overconfidence behavior causes the increase of Tianjin Port's utilities. Secondly, it is found that the effect of theSCOon thePSLand the effect ofTPOon thePSLoffset each other which will lead to a threshold inTPO. This threshold is affected by theSCO, and demand updating amplifies this effect. Thirdly, demand updating not only adds to the shipping company's carrying volume andPSL, but also increases the utilities of both parties. Lastly, it is unexpectedly found that there are interactions between demand updating and dual overconfidence behavior.