Asset-liability management for Czech pension funds using stochastic programming

摘要

It is possible to model a wide range of portfolio management problems using stochastic programming. This approach requires the generation of input scenarios and probabilities, which represent the evolution of the return on investment, the stream of liabilities and other random phenomena of the problem and respect the no-arbitrage properties. The quality of the recommended capital allocation depends on the quality of the input scenarios and a validation of results is necessary. Appropriate scenario generation techniques and output analysis methods are described in the context of defined contribution pension fund and applied to the specific model of a Czech pension fund. The numerical results indicate various components that influence the recommended investment decisions and the fund's achievements. In particular, the initial balance sheet position of the pension fund is important for the optimal investment strategy because of the accounting rules embedded in the model and tracking of both the market and purchasing value of assets.