Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation approaches in ADS burn-up calculations

摘要

In activation calculations, there are several approaches to quantify uncertainties: deterministic by means of sensitivity analysis, and stochastic by means of Monte Carlo. Here, two different Monte Carlo approaches for nuclear data uncertainty are presented: the first one is the Total Monte Carlo (TMC). The second one is by means of a Monte Carlo sampling of the covariance information included in the nuclear data libraries to propagate these uncertainties throughout the activation calculations. This last approach is what we named Covariance Uncertainty Propagation, CUP.This work presents both approaches and their differences. Also, they are compared by means of an activation calculation, where the cross-section uncertainties of ~(239)Pu and~(241)Pu are propagated in an ADS activation calculation.