Forecasting Water Demand in Phoenix, Ariz

摘要

Short-term water demand forecasts support water utility planning efforts. This study applies a linear transfer function (LTF) approach to model and forecast water demand for single-family residential, multi-family residential, and nonresidential customer categories in Phoenix, Ariz. Among other things, nonresidential water usage is found to be somewhat more price-responsive than residential usage. Variations in responses to weather and economic variables are also documented for the various customer categories. Out-of-sample demand simulations are generated for periods when actual demand is known. Descriptive accuracy metrics and two formal tests are used to analyze the accuracy of LTF projections against two random-walk benchmarks. The descriptive accuracy results for percustomer water usage forecasts in most cases favor the LTF model, but the improvements in accuracy with respect to the benchmarks are statistically insignificant in most cases. Mixed accuracy results are obtained from an analysis of the LTF customer base forecasts.