Does Monetary Policy Affect Relative Educational Unemployment Rates?

摘要

This paper examines the empirical relationship between relative educational unemployment rates and monetary policy. Such an examination is warranted because policymakers' attempts to understand the distributional effects of monetary policy may be confounded by vintages of the theoretical literature that offer contrasting views of how skill-based relative unemployment (with unemployment of the less skilled in the numerator) might behave over the business cycle. A traditional view emphasizes characteristics of labor markets that could induce countercyclical movements in skill-based relative unemployment. For example, Arthur Okun (1973) argues that an important benefit of high levels of aggregate economic activity is that opportunities for employment in the high-quality jobs sector open up to the relatively unskilled. A mechanism for the relative improvement of the employment prospects of the unskilled is changes in hiring standards of high-quality job providers that occur over the cycle. Changes that occur during expansion and boom periods mentioned by Okun include accepting younger and less experienced workers or workers without diplomas and more intensive screening of applicants. A forceful statement of this high-pressure economy view is contained in Rebecca Blank (2000).