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Thar She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?

机译:塔尔(Thar She)吹动:经验丰富的主题会重新点燃泡泡吗?

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摘要

We report 28 new experiment sessions consisting of up to three experience levels to examine the robustness of learning and "error" elimination among participants in a laboratory asset market and its effect on price bubbles. Our answer to the title question is: "yes." We impose a large increase in liquidity and dividend uncertainty to shock the environment of experienced subjects who have converged to equilibrium, and this treatment rekindles a bubble. However, in replications of that same challenging environment across three experience levels, we discover that the environment yields a rare residual tendency to bubble even in the third experience session. Therefore, a caveat must be placed on the effect of twice-experienced subjects in asset markets: in order for price bubbles to be extinguished, the environment in which the participants engage in exchange must be stationary and bounded by a range of parameters. Experience, including possible "error" elimination, is not robust to major new environment changes in determining the characteristics of a price bubble.
机译:我们报告了28个新的实验会议,其中包括多达三个经验水平,以检验实验室资产市场参与者学习和消除“错误”的稳健性及其对价格泡沫的影响。我们对标题问题的回答是:“是”。我们对流动性和股利的不确定性进行了大幅度提高,以冲击已经趋于平衡的有经验的主体的环境,这种处理方式重新燃起了泡沫。但是,在三个体验级别上对相同挑战性环境的复制中,我们发现即使在第三次体验会议中,该环境也会产生罕见的冒泡现象。因此,必须对在资产市场上经历过两次的主体的影响作出警告:为了消除价格泡沫,参与者参与交易的环境必须是固定的,并受一系列参数的限制。在确定价格泡沫特征时,包括可能消除“错误”在内的经验对于新的主要环境变化并不稳健。

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