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Information Aggregation in Polls

机译:民意调查中的信息汇总

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We study information transmission via polling. A policymaker polls constituents, who differ in their information and ideology, to determine policy. Full revelation is an equilibrium in a poll with a small sample, but not with a large one. In large polls, full information aggregation can arise in an equilibrium where constituents endogenously sort themselves into centrists, who respond truthfully, and extremists, who do not. We find polling statistics that ignore strategic behavior yield biased estimators and mischaracterize the poll's margin of error. We construct estimators that account for strategic behavior. Finally, we compare polls and elections.
机译:我们研究通过轮询的信息传输。决策者会对信息和意识形态不同的选民进行民意测验,以确定政策。完全揭示是在民意测验中只有少量样本的平衡,而没有大量样本。在大型民意测验中,充分的信息汇总会在均衡中出现,在这种均衡中,选民内生地将自己分类为中间派,他们如实回应,而极端主义者则不这样做。我们发现民意测验统计数据忽略了战略行为会产生偏见的估计量,并错误地描述民意测验的误差幅度。我们构造说明战略行为的估算器。最后,我们比较民意测验和选举。

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