Lost in Transit: Product Replacement Bias and Pricing to Market

摘要

In the microdata underlying US trade price indexes, 40 percent of products are replaced before a single price change is observed and 70 percent are replaced after two price changes or fewer. A price index that focuses on price changes for identical items may, therefore, miss an important component of price adjustment occurring at the time of product replacements. We provide a model of this "product replacement bias" and quantify its importance using US data. Accounting for product replacement bias, long-run exchange rate "pass-through" is substantially higher than conventional estimates suggest, and the terms of trade are substantially more volatile.