Moving to Higher Ground: Migration Response to Natural Disasters in the Early Twentieth Century

摘要

This paper has investigated the role of natural disaster shocks in determining gross migration flows, controlling for other place-based features. Using two micro datasets, we documented that in the 1920s and 1930s population was repelled from tornado-prone areas, with a larger effect on potential in-migrants than on existing residents, while flood events were associated with net in-migration. The differential migration responses by disaster type raises the question of whether public efforts at disaster mitigation counteract individual migration decisions. The nascent investment in rebuilding and protecting flood prone areas could provide one example of public investment crowding out private self-protection (i.e., migration).