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Global Financial Cycles and the Exchange Rate Regime: A Perspective from Emerging Markets

机译:全球金融周期与汇率制度:新兴市场的视角

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摘要

The synchronous rise and fall of cross-border capital flows, domestic credit, and asset prices across countries in response to changing financial conditions at the center of the system-the "global financial cycle"-has raised questions about the degree of insulation the exchange rate regime can provide for domestic economic and financial variables. Rey (2016), for example, shows that US monetary policy shocks affect financial conditions in inflation-targeting advanced economies, and argues that flexible exchange rates are not enough to safeguard monetary autonomy in a world of high capital mobility-a contradiction to the monetary policy trilemma (Mundell 1963; Obstfeld and Taylor 1998). Similarly, in a combined sample of advanced and emerging market economies, Passari and Rey (2015) show that global financial shocks (proxied by the VIX index) affect domestic credit and equity returns with similar force regardless of the exchange rate regime.
机译:跨境资本流动,国内信贷和资产价格在各国之间的同步上升和下降,以响应系统中心不断变化的金融状况(“全球金融周期”),引发了人们对交易所绝缘程度的质疑。利率制度可以提供国内经济和金融变量。例如,雷伊(Rey,2016年)表示,美国的货币政策冲击会影响以通胀为目标的发达经济体的金融状况,并认为灵活的汇率不足以在高资本流动性的世界中保障货币自治,这与货币政策矛盾政策三难(Mundell 1963; Obstfeld and Taylor 1998)。同样,在先进市场和新兴市场经济体的合并样本中,Passari和Rey(2015)表明,全球金融震荡(由VIX指数代理)对国内信贷和股本收益的影响力相似,而与汇率制度无关。

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