Growth in Freighter Fleet Fails to Bolster Values Of Older Types Values of Older Aircraft Dependent on Conversion

摘要

Were it not for the large number of freighter conversions of the B747-200 in the 1980s and 1990s, the A300s in the 1990s, the B747-400s and B757s in the 2000s and the B737-400s in the 2010s, values of the passenger aircraft no longer in production would be significantly lower. There was a view 20 years ago that virtually all aircraft types would be eligible for freighter conversion such was the perceived demand. In 1998 the Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast stated that the 1997 freighter fleet of 1,434 would increase to 2,706 freighters as of 2017 stimulated by an average annual growth rate of 6.5 percent for airfreight. The freighter fleet was therefore expected to double and this would have absorbed a reasonable proportion of passenger aircraft that would have otherwise been permanently retired. In the latest Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast, the 2017 fleet amounted to only 1,870 units representing an increase of only 30 percent. The Boeing forecasts from 20 years ago significantly overestimated demand for airfreight not least because of the limited growth that has taken place over the last ten years as well because of the amount of freight being carried on widebody passenger aircraft.