Boeing's dream begins

摘要

Launching any new product is a nerve-racking business, but launching a new aircraft type is a particularly big risk. It is not just the large amount of cash needed, but also the time it takes to find out whether you were right. While manufacturers and lessors can help stimulate demand, in the end it is always airlines that decide which aircraft becomes a success. Everyone agrees that Concorde was a great technological achievement but, with only two airlines ever operating the aircraft, it was a business failure. Boeing's Sonic Cruiser project was finally cancelled because airlines did not think they could make money from it and while the A380 has a number of strong airlines backing it, Airbus will not know whether the project is a true success for perhaps another five years. This is why launch orders are so important. It is not that they decide the success of a type (in fact many launch customers of successful aircraft types no longer exist), but if several top airlines back your product, hopefully others will. As marketing professors would say, once you get early adopters to buy in, you can rely on the majority to follow.