Industry Needs to Accept New Normal Realism

摘要

I love our industry — as do investors, entrepreneurs, and consultants. Unlike some industrial sectors or hardware supply wholesalers 15 years ago, HVACR isn't going away anytime soon and has plenty of room for growth. We are what Texas A&M's Supply Chain Laboratory calls a "pillar industry" like food service, electrical products, and medical supplies because economic gyrations and new wave technologies have a dampened effect on us compared to more volatile verticals. I agree with all of this but also believe that overcon-fidence in these attributes by many within the industry, and some who analyze our industry, has clouded perspectives of what HVACR's short and long-term outlook really is. While 2010 was certainly a better year than the abysmal 2009, I'm already seeing far too many distributors, manufacturers, and contractors project 2011 growth based on 2009-2010 comparisons. In HARDI's press release discussing November 2010 distributor sales, we offered this counsel: "The latest numbers from HARDI distributors are very encouraging, however, a word of caution is worthwhile given the outlook for housing, end of the tax credit, and the outlook for the commercial industry," said HARDI Chief Economist, Alan Beaulieu of the Institute for Trend Research. "Banks are beginning to lend more commercially, but housing will be an ongoing lending issue. We would suggest that too much not be read into the numbers. A straight-line projection at this point could be disastrous."