A discrete-time hazard analysis of the exit of burley tobacco growers in Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia

摘要

This article examines the exit and survival dynamics of burley tobacco growers in Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia using a discrete-time hazard logit model. The study also predicts the effects of selected farm and family characteristics on exit hazards, assesses the proportionality of their effects over time and their relative importance in explaining the variation in exit hazards among burley tobacco growers. Results provide the longitudinal progression of the probability of exiting the tobacco industry since the end of the federal tobacco program in 2004, and identify off-farm participation, percentage of farm receipts from tobacco, tobacco price, educational level, and farm size as the most important determinants of the decision to exit the tobacco industry. Further, the effects of off-farm participation and farm size on the exit hazards of burley tobacco farms are proportional over time while the effects of the percentage of farm receipts from tobacco and tobacco price are time variant.