The Global Financial Crisis and Sub-Saharan Africa: The Effects of Slowing Private Capital Inflows on Growth†

摘要

Abstract: This paper uses the bias-corrected least-squares dummy variable (LSDV) estimator to examine the relationship between economic growth and four different types of private capital inflows (cross-border bank lending, foreign direct investment (FDI), bonds flows and portfolio equity flows) on a sample of 15 selected sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1980–2008. Our results show that FDI and cross-border bank lending exert a significant and positive impact on sub-Saharan Africa's growth, whereas portfolio equity flows and bonds flows have no growth impact. Our estimates suggest that a drop by 10 per cent in FDI inflows may lead to a 3 per cent decrease of income per capita growth in sub-Saharan Africa, and a 10 per cent decrease in cross-border bank lending may reduce growth by up to 1.5 per cent. Therefore, the global financial crisis is likely to have an important effect on sub-Saharan Africa's growth through the private capital inflows channel.