South Sudan/Sudan Oil talks vital for Kiir Regime's very survival

摘要

Africa Energy Intelligence understandsrnthat new talks are to beginrnin Khartoum later this monthrnbetween the oil ministers of Sudanrnand South Sudan in order to set newrntransit fee rates that Juba pays tornhave its crude pass by way of Sudanrnto reach Port Sudan. Agreementsrnreached in 2012 expire at the endrnof this year and South Sudan’s oilrnminister, Ezekiel Lol Gatkuoth,rnhopes to persuade his counterpartrnin the north, Zayed Awad Musa, tornagree to a floating transit fee raternbased on the actual price of oil. Thernagreement in 2012 proved ruinousrnto Juba. The country suffered a droprnin its revenue even as it descendedrninto civil war that has been virtuallyrnpermanent since 2013 and whichrnwas the consequence of vice presidentrnRiek Machar removal byrnpresident Salva Kiir. At the moment,rnJuba pays $9.1 per barrel for therntransit of Nile Blend and $11 for DarrnBlend, to which is added $15 perrnbarrel as repayment for a $3 billionrndebt that Juba shares with Khartoumrnand which was granted when SouthrnSudan became independent in 2011.rnIn addition, South Sudan’s crudernfetches lower prices than benchmarkrnBrent oil. The price of NilernBlend works out $2 cheaper perrnbarrel than Brent while Dar Blend,rnbecause of its viscosity, sells forrnalmost $10 less than the benchmarkrnprice. So when the barrel falls belowrn$30, as it did in January 2016, DarrnBlend is sold at a loss.