LETTERS AND ONLINE

摘要

2015 SDSR 2015 is indeed a step in the right direction following the highly damaging cutbacks in 2010. At the time criticism of the ending of both an MPA and strike carrier capability at the same time was brushed aside with the bland assurance that 'the risks are manageable'. Well, they got that completely wrong - though governments are elected to anticipate worst-case scenarios and it is surely irresponsible not to make some provision for the unexpected which we have had to deal with in spades. This new report attempts to rectify the worst aspects of SDSR 2070and, overall, the revised policy is to be welcomed but the reality in the small print is far from the bullish headlines would suggest. The government has confirmed its aspiration to order 138 F-35s over 25 years but, in fact, has ordered fewer than Norway. It was claimed that the delivery of F-35Bs is being speeded up but, by 2022/23, there will still be only 24 aircraft for RAF+RN service, with a carrier complement being the same number - 12 - as could be carried by an Invincible-dass carrier, a third of the size of the Q£ class.These hugely expensive ships were designed to operate 40. The P-8 decision is very welcome but we will still have an MPA gap for another five years and where are all these highly specialised crews to come from for a nine-ship fleet? The US Navy perhaps? Similarly the decision to retain the 50 early Typhoons is far more sensible than disposing of them when they were originally designed to be agile interceptors, which they are. The USAF is extending the lives of its F-15s out to 2040, and Germany is doing likewise with its Tornados. Claiming that the government is rebuilding squadron strength in the RAF glosses over the fact that the number of fast-jet squadrons has been halved in recent years, so the addition of one more will hardly transform the situation, especially as the Tornados will all be gone by 2019. A second F-35B squadron is not a new addition, as it was originally intended to have both 617 and 809 Sqns in service by the end of this decade - subsequently delayed two years. Making more use of the Voyagers and extending the ISR fleets is excellent news, as is the decision to procure some Zephyr surrogate satellite platforms and more RPAS aircraft but again, there is now a real danger that some of these enhancements in capability may be compromised by the severe shortages in manpower in the RAF and Royal Navy, because far too many people were cast aside in recent years and as has been said, you can't find replacements in the job centre. With so many outsourced PFI contracts in place, who is going to monitor all this activity if 30% of the MoD workforce is removed? The track record of some of the leading commercial monitoring and management companies who have been tasked with doing similar work in other public sector areas is hardly encouraging. So, this latest defence and security review is certainly full of positive developments but the timescales are very extended, and what the Treasury can promise today can also be taken away again if the economic backdrop clouds over in the meantime. We shouldn't have to re-adjust strategy and tactics every time there is an economic blip. The world is too dangerous to base policy on what the headlines say the previous day. Our forces urgently need regeneration -just to get back to near where they were in 2010-and a lot can happen over five years as HMG now seems to accept. The detail in SDSR 2015 is worth reading very carefully, but many questions remain unanswered.