Mechanistic interpretation of Alpine glacierized environments: Part 2. Hydrologic interpretation and model parameters identification on case study

摘要

The differential model MIAGE (see "Mechanistic Interpretation of Alpine Glacierized Environments: Part 1. Model formulation and related dynamical properties" by Perona and Burlando, this issue) is analyzed in this work with the purpose of: (i) showing the model equivalence to a nonlinear reservoir system; (ii) identifying and correlating the model's coefficients to the hydrogeomorphological properties of a number of different Alpine basins; (iii) testing the model performances to assess the potential impact of climatic change on the hydrologic dynamics of the basins being studied. The study catchments have different topographic, morphologic and hydrologic characteristics, range in size from 4 to 3300 km~2 and are 2-32% glacierized. For each basin, the model coefficients are obtained by applying a system identification technique to the mean seasonal basin behaviour. It is shown that the coefficients vary in a reasonable way according to hydrogeomorphological basin characteristics. Model coefficients provide insight into the basin drainage time, and the time dependent damping and elastic properties of the system. Despite its simplicity and in the limit of the model capabilities, results for changing climatic scenarios are also in good qualitative agreement with other well tested modelling approaches. In summary, MIAGE offers an interesting minimalist approach to shed light on the dynamics of glacierized Alpine catchments.