Methodology for characterizing high-risk orbital debris in the geosynchronous orbit regime

摘要

Forecasting of localized debris congestion in the geostationary (GEO) ring is performed to formulate and investigate methodology for j identifying the debris objects that pose the highest risk to operational satellites in this ring. Proximity and speed relative to GEO during j near-miss events detected under a torus intersection metric are translated into a combined risk factor that is accumulated during prop- j agation. This accumulated risk is then used to identify the objects that have the highest risk contributions, either globally or in the vicin- j ity of one of the two gravitational wells at 75°E and 105°W. Results show that nearly 60% of the total risk surrounding the Western well ! is attributed to 10 derelicts alone, which has critical implications for active debris removal (ADR) target selection for attenuating risk j levels in this ring.