Characteristics and Numerical Simulation of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations under Global Warming

摘要

Using the ECMWF reanalysis daily 200-hPa wind data during the two 20-yr periods from 1958 to 1977 and from 1980 to 1999, the characteristics and changes of Intraseasonal Oscillations (ISO) in the two periods associated with global warming are analyzed and compared in this study. It is found that during the last 20 years, the ISO has weakened in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, but becomes more active in the central Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal; under the background of the global warming, increase in the amplitude of ISO intensity suggests that the ISO has become more active than before, with an obvious seasonal cycle, i.e., strong during winter and spring, but weak during summer and autumn; the energy of the upper tropospheric zonal winds has more concentrated in wave numbers 1-3, and the frequency of ISO tended to increase. Comparison between the results of control experiment and CO_2 increase (1% per year) experiment of FGOALS-1.0g (developed at LASG) with the first and second 20-yr observations, is also performed, respectively. The comparative results show that the spatial structure of the ISO was well reproduced, but the strength of ISO was underestimated. On the basis of space-time spectral analysis, it is found that the simulated ISO contains too much high frequency waves, leading to the underestimation of ISO intensity due to the dispersion of ISO energy. However, FGOALS-1.0g captured the salient features of ISO under the global warming background by two contrast experiments, such as the vitality and frequency-increasing of ISO in the central Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal.