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DOWN, NOT OUT

机译:向下,不向外

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摘要

At first glance that seems nonsensical. Low oil prices transfer money from oil-producing nations to oil-consuming nations. Net oil importing countries account for about 90% of global GDP and consumers often spend the windfall from cheap fuel. Cheap oil should boost world growth, even if it is bad news for exporters. History shows that all the big spikes in oil prices - 1974, 1979, 1990 and 2007 - preceded major economic slowdowns. So with a barrel of Brent crude recently hitting $30 (£21), its lowest in 12 years, why isn't the global economy in better shape? The reality is that the headwinds from China's slowdown and the long-term decline in global growth prospects are the real problem. Lower oil prices are a positive for growth. The world economy is dominated by the rich nations of the West, China and India, economies that benefit from lower oil prices. The losers from lower oil prices - economies like Saudi Arabia, Nigeria or Russia - just have too small a weight in the world economy to significantly hit global growth.
机译:乍看之下似乎很荒谬。低油价将资金从产油国转移到了耗油国。石油净进口国约占全球GDP的90%,而消费者通常会从廉价燃料中赚钱。廉价石油应能促进世界增长,即使这对出口商而言是个坏消息。历史表明,1974年,1979年,1990年和2007年的所有油价大涨都是在经济大幅放缓之前发生的。那么,随着最近一桶布伦特原油价格达到每桶30美元(21英镑),创下12年以来的最低水平,为什么全球经济形势不会好转呢?现实情况是,中国经济放缓带来的不利因素以及全球增长前景的长期下降是真正的问题。较低的油价对经济增长是有利的。西方国家,中国和印度等富裕国家主导着世界经济,这些国家得益于较低的石油价格。油价下跌的失败者-沙特阿拉伯,尼日利亚或俄罗斯等经济体-在世界经济中的权重太小,无法显着打击全球增长。

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  • 来源
    《Accountancy》 |2016年第1471期|16-17|共2页
  • 作者

    IAN STEWART;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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