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The frequency--severity indeterminacy.

机译:频率-严重程度不确定性。

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摘要

Nothing is known about unreported crashes; the information we have is of reported crashes only. Whether a crash gets reported depends on its severity. It follows by logic that, using only data about reported crashes, it is impossible to say whether a change or difference in crash counts reflects a change or difference in crash frequency or in crash severity. This indeterminacy has practical implications. Examples discussed are of the misattribution of over-representation in reported crashes of older drivers and of trucks to causal factors related to the frequency of crash involvement, and of misinterpretation by researchers of findings about the rollover propensity of SUVs.
机译:对于未报告的崩溃,一无所知。我们所掌握的信息仅是报告的崩溃信息。是否报告崩溃取决于其严重性。根据逻辑,仅使用报告的碰撞数据,就无法说出碰撞计数的变化或差异是否反映了碰撞频率或碰撞严重性的变化或差异。这种不确定性具有实际意义。所讨论的例子包括,在报告的老年驾驶员和卡车碰撞事故中,过高的代表性归因于与事故频发频率有关的因果关系,以及研究人员对SUV侧翻倾向的发现有误解。

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