ANALYSIS OF COMMERCIAL MINI-BUS ACCIDENTS

摘要

This paper presents a study of mini-bus traffic accidents aimed at gaining insight into the factors affecting accident occurrence and severity. Understanding these factors can help to bring forth realistic strategies to improve the safety of these buses. Two disaggregate models related to the time until accident occurrence and the number of accident injuries were specified and estimated. The models were estimated using data collected from 438 mini-bus drivers in Jordan. The estimated models yielded significant associations between the independent variables and both the time until accident occurrence (first, second and third accidents) and their corresponding number of injuries (accident severity). Higher accident rates were associated with drivers who were unmarried, took too few rest breaks and had short time intervals since previous accidents. Lower accident rates were associated with drivers who had long bus-driving and private vehicle-driving experience. The results indicate that the longer a mini-bus driver goes without an accident, the less likely it is that he will have an accident. The results also indicate that previous accident type affects the duration of the upcoming traffic accident. Greater accident severity was associated with single-vehicle accidents, rural intercity routes and speeding. Accident severity decreased and the time between two accidents increased when the previous accident was severe. The results seem to indicate that post- and immediate accident history affect the severity of upcoming accidents. Seven recommendations based on these findings are made in an attempt to improve mini-bus safety.