A review of surrogate safety measures and their applications in connected and automated vehicles safety modeling

摘要

Surrogate Safety Measures (SSM) are important for safety performance evaluation, since crashes are rare events and historical crash data does not capture near crashes that are also critical for improving safety. This paper focuses on SSM and their applications, particularly in Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAV) safety modeling. It aims to provide a comprehensive and systematic review of significant SSM studies, identify limitations and opportunities for future SSM and CAV research, and assist researchers and practitioners with choosing the most appropriate SSM for safety studies. The behaviors of CAV can be very different from those of Human-Driven Vehicles (HDV). Even among CAV with different automation/connectivity levels, their behaviors are likely to differ. Also, the behaviors of HDV can change in response to the existence of CAV in mixed autonomy traffic. Simulation by far is the most viable solution to model CAV safety. However, it is questionable whether conventional SSM can be applied to modeling CAV safety based on simulation results due to the lack of sophisticated simulation tools that can accurately model CAV behaviors and SSM that can take CAV's powerful sensing and path prediction and planning capabilities into crash risk modeling, although some researchers suggested that proper simulation model calibration can be helpful to address these issues. A number of critical questions related to SSM for CAV safety research are also identified and discussed, including SSM for CAV trajectory optimization, SSM for individual vehicles and vehicle platoon, and CAV as a new data source for developing SSM.