太陽光・風力発電の出力変動と全国の電力融通を考慮した日本の最適電源構成に関する分析

摘要

エネルギー安全保障問題や地球温暖化問題に対応する上で，再生可能エネルギーを活用した発電システムが注目されており，なかでも，太陽光と風力発電が脚光を集めている．日本では太陽光や風力などの発電電力を一定期間，固定価格で電力会社が全量買い取る固定価格買取制度を義務付ける再生可能エネルギー特別措置法1）の下，2012年7月より買取が開始される予定である．%This paper analyzes Japan' s optimal power generation mix considering massive deployment of variable renewable energy and nationwide power interchange. The extensive introduction of PV system and wind power system are expected to play an important role in addressing energy security and climate change concern in Japan. Considering this expected large-scale deployment of PV and wind system in electric power system, it is necessary to investigate the opt imal power generatio mix which is technologically capable of controlling and accommodating the intermittent output-power fluctuation. On these backgrounds, we develop optimal power generation mix model, explicitly analyzing the impact of output fluctuation in variable renewables in detailed resolution of time interval like 10 minutes at consecutive 365 days, with the role of stationary battery technology incorporated. Simulation results reveal that considerable deployment of variable renewables do not necessarily require the comparable scale of battery capacity as that of variable renewable capacity, due to quick load following treatment by thermal power plants, pumped-storage hydro power and battery technology toward renewable intermittency.