日照時間の統計的解析に基づいた東京電力管内の太陽光発電電力量のパターン别推定と電源計画モデルへの導入

摘要

Since the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (C0P21) in 2015 adopted 2-degree goal, we must carry out an action of GHG reduction concretely. While many types of renewable energy have been a I ready introduced on electric power system in Japan, the such intermittent sources as photovoltaic energy system (PV) and wind power should be assessed taking into account the weather conditions. Especially, when we consider the planning and operation of PV， we have to take account regional distribution of the solar radiation when power transmission among regions is widely implemented. In this paper, we employ the principal component analysis for sunshine data based on the10 observation points within the service area of Tokyo Electric Co. to see how the regional PV outputs are correlated. We then extract some patterns of sunshine including the variety of seasonal effects among regions. The PV generation potentials considering the correlation among regions are thus calculated. The results are included in the power expansion model to analyze their impacts on the planning and the operations of power plants.%今年，地球温暖化対策の国際的枠組みであるパリ協定が 採択された.わが国においても温室効果ガス排出削減の取 り組みが一層求められている.特に発電部門では東日本大 震災以後排出量が増大したため再生可能エネルギーの導入 が不可欠である.わが国では東日本大震災後には国内の原 子力発電所は停止し，現在でもほぼ全ての原発が稼働して いない状況である.原発に頼っていた電源の代替として， 現在主流なのは火力発電である.震災前は発電電力量（以下rn発電量）全体の約60%を占めた火力発電は，2013年度には 88.3%まで上昇した[1].しかし，石炭·石油·天然ガスは 化石燃料と呼ばれ,燃焼時に温室効果ガスを放出するため，