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On impact of transport conditions on variability of the seasonal pollen index

机译:运输条件对季节性花粉指数变化的影响

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摘要

This discussion paper reveals the contribution of pollen transport conditions to the inter-annual variability of the seasonal pollen index (SPI). This contribution is quantified as a sensitivity of the pollen model predictions to meteorological variability and is shown to be a noticeable addition to the SPI variability caused by plant reproduction cycles. A specially designed SILAM model re-analysis of pollen seasons 1980–2014 was performed, resulting in the 35 years of the SPI predictions over Europe, which was used to compute the SPI inter-annual variability. The current paper presents the results for birch and grass. Throughout the re-analysis, the source term formulations and habitation maps were kept constant, which allowed attributing the obtained variability exclusively to the pollen release and transport conditions during the flowering seasons. It is shown that the effect is substantial: it amounts to 10–20% (grass) and 20–40% (birch) of the observed SPI year-to-year changes reported in the literature. The phenomenon has well-pronounced spatial- and species-specific patterns. The findings were compared with observation-based statistical models for the SPI prediction, showing that such models highlight the same processes as the analysis with the SILAM model.
机译:该讨论文件揭示了花粉运输条件对季节性花粉指数(SPI)的年际变化的贡献。该贡献被量化为花粉模型预测对气象变异性的敏感性,并且被证明是植物繁殖周期引起的SPI变异性的显着增加。进行了特别设计的SILAM模型对1980-2014年花粉季节的重新分析,得出了欧洲SPI预测的35年,用于计算SPI的年际变化。本文介绍了桦木和草的结果。在整个重新分析过程中,源术语的公式和生境图都保持恒定,这使得所获得的变异性只能归因于开花季节的花粉释放和运输条件。结果表明,这种影响是实质性的:相当于文献中观察到的SPI逐年变化的10–20%(草)和20–40%(桦木)。这种现象具有明显的空间和物种特定模式。将这些发现与基于SPI预测的基于观测的统计模型进行了比较,表明这些模型突出了与SILAM模型进行分析的过程相同的过程。

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