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Fractal Profit Landscape of the Stock Market

机译:股票市场的分形利润态势

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摘要

We investigate the structure of the profit landscape obtained from the most basic, fluctuation based, trading strategy applied for the daily stock price data. The strategy is parameterized by only two variables, p and q Stocks are sold and bought if the log return is bigger than p and less than –q, respectively. Repetition of this simple strategy for a long time gives the profit defined in the underlying two-dimensional parameter space of p and q. It is revealed that the local maxima in the profit landscape are spread in the form of a fractal structure. The fractal structure implies that successful strategies are not localized to any region of the profit landscape and are neither spaced evenly throughout the profit landscape, which makes the optimization notoriously hard and hypersensitive for partial or limited information. The concrete implication of this property is demonstrated by showing that optimization of one stock for future values or other stocks renders worse profit than a strategy that ignores fluctuations, i.e., a long-term buy-and-hold strategy.
机译:我们调查了从适用于每日股价数据的最基本的,基于波动的交易策略获得的利润格局的结构。该策略仅由两个变量p和q参数化。如果对数回报分别大于p和小于–q,则买卖股票。长时间重复此简单策略,将在p和q的基础二维参数空间中定义利润。结果表明,利润格局中的局部最大值以分形结构的形式分布。分形结构意味着成功的策略不会局限在利润格局的任何区域,也不会在整个利润格局中均等地分布,这使优化非常困难且对部分或有限信息敏感。此属性的具体含义是,通过证明针对一只股票的未来价值或其他股票进行优化,会比忽略波动的策略(即长期购买和持有策略)带来更差的利润。

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