Latent class models for Echinococcus multilocularis diagnosis in foxes in Switzerland in the absence of a gold standard

摘要

BackgroundIn Europe the principal definitive host for Echinococcus multilocularis, causing alveolar echinococcosis in humans, is the red fox (Vulpes vulpes). Obtaining reliable estimates of the prevalence of E. multilocularis and relevant risk factors for infection in foxes can be difficult if diagnostic tests with unknown test accuracies are used. Latent-class analysis can be used to obtain estimates of diagnostic test sensitivities and specificities in the absence of a perfect gold standard. Samples from 300 foxes in Switzerland were assessed by four different diagnostic tests including necropsy followed by sedimentation and counting technique (SCT), an egg-PCR, a monoclonal and a polyclonal copro-antigen ELISA. Information on sex, age and presence of other cestode species was assessed as potential covariates in the Bayesian latent class models. Different Bayesian latent-class models were run, considering dichotomized test results and, additionally, continuous readings resulting in empirical ROC curves.