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Interval Coded Scoring: a toolbox for interpretable scoring systems

机译:间隔编码评分:可解释的评分系统的工具箱

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摘要

Over the last decades, clinical decision support systems have been gaining importance. They help clinicians to make effective use of the overload of available information to obtain correct diagnoses and appropriate treatments. However, their power often comes at the cost of a black box model which cannot be interpreted easily. This interpretability is of paramount importance in a medical setting with regard to trust and (legal) responsibility. In contrast, existing medical scoring systems are easy to understand and use, but they are often a simplified rule-of-thumb summary of previous medical experience rather than a well-founded system based on available data. Interval Coded Scoring (ICS) connects these two approaches, exploiting the power of sparse optimization to derive scoring systems from training data. The presented toolbox interface makes this theory easily applicable to both small and large datasets. It contains two possible problem formulations based on linear programming or elastic net. Both allow to construct a model for a binary classification problem and establish risk profiles that can be used for future diagnosis. All of this requires only a few lines of code. ICS differs from standard machine learning through its model consisting of interpretable main effects and interactions. Furthermore, insertion of expert knowledge is possible because the training can be semi-automatic. This allows end users to make a trade-off between complexity and performance based on cross-validation results and expert knowledge. Additionally, the toolbox offers an accessible way to assess classification performance via accuracy and the ROC curve, whereas the calibration of the risk profile can be evaluated via a calibration curve. Finally, the colour-coded model visualization has particular appeal if one wants to apply ICS manually on new observations, as well as for validation by experts in the specific application domains. The validity and applicability of the toolbox is demonstrated by comparing it to standard Machine Learning approaches such as Naive Bayes and Support Vector Machines for several real-life datasets. These case studies on medical problems show its applicability as a decision support system. ICS performs similarly in terms of classification and calibration. Its slightly lower performance is countered by its model simplicity which makes it the method of choice if interpretability is a key issue.
机译:在过去的几十年中,临床决策支持系统一直在赢利。他们帮助临床医生有效利用可用信息的过载,以获得正确的诊断和适当的治疗方法。然而,他们的力量通常以不易解释的黑匣子模型的成本。这种可解释性在关于信任和(法律)责任方面的医疗环境中至关重要。相比之下,现有的医疗评分系统易于理解和使用,但它们通常是先前医学经验的简化规则摘要,而不是基于可用数据的良好的系统。间隔编码评分(IC)连接这两种方法,利用稀疏优化的力量来导出从训练数据进行评分系统。呈现的工具箱界面使得该理论很容易适用于小型和大型数据集。它包含基于线性编程或弹性网的两个可能的问题配方。两者都允许构建模型进行二进制分类问题,并建立可用于将来诊断的风险配置文件。所有这些只需要几行代码。 IC与标准机器学习的不同之处在于其模型,包括可解释的主要效果和相互作用。此外,可以插入专业知识,因为培训可以是半自动的。这允许最终用户根据交叉验证结果和专业知识进行复杂性和性能之间进行权衡。此外,工具箱提供了可访问的方式,可通过准确性和ROC曲线评估分类性能,而可以通过校准曲线进行评估风险配置文件的校准。最后,如果想要在新的观测中手动应用IC,以及特定应用领域的专家验证,则颜色编码模型可视化具有特殊的吸引力。通过将其与标准机器学习方法(如Naive Bayes和支持传染媒介机器)进行比较,证明了工具箱的有效性和适用性,用于几个现实生活数据集。这些案例研究医学问题表明其作为决策支持系统的适用性。根据分类和校准,ICS类似地执行。其略低的性能因其模型简单而衡量,这使得如果可解释性是关键问题,则使其成为选择的方法。

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