Effect of Asbestos Consumption on Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy: Forecasts of Mortality up to 2040

摘要

Asbestos consumption figures could be used to construct epidemiological models to forecast the pleural mesothelioma mortality, although they are not frequently taken into consideration in this kind of analysis. Our purpose is to predict the future burden of pleural mesothelioma deaths in Italy until 2039 and to describe the exposure–response curve considering time lasted from the exposure start. Our results could be of interest to plan future needs of the Italian health system and to provide evidence on the consequences of asbestos exposures useful for countries in which this material is, at present, still used for productive activities.