Spatial distribution of regional infrastructures in the northeast of Iran using GIS and Mic Mac observation (A case of Khorasan Razavi province)

摘要

Nowadays, recognizing the current situation and forecasting the desired status of spatial analysis of infrastructures regarding security and defense considerations is of great importance. Besides, the use of approaches such as futures studies and its simultaneous application with GIS has the most fundamental contribution to the field of decision-making and appropriate planning method in studies on the spatial defense planning. Accordingly, this paper aims to evaluate the spatial distribution of regional infrastructures in the northeast of Iran using a passive defense approach. In this regard, a descriptive-analytical research methodology, library-documentary studies, and statistical surveys were used in the model framework along with software (Mic Mac and Scenario Wizard) and system analysis (GIS) to achieve the research objective. The statistical population of the study was defined in two human and spatial scales. The entire geographical space of Khorasan Razavi province made the spatial scale. On the human scale, 40 experts (n = 15) and elites (n = 25) in the field of this study were selected as the statistical sample using a purposive non-random model. It is noteworthy that all of the subjects had the required scientific and executive knowledge. According to the total research indicators, the vulnerable zones of the study area could be distinguished into five categories of areas with very high (7.33%), high (16.52%), moderate (29.78%), low (16.94%), and very low (29.4%) vulnerability. Also, according to the results, the density and dispersion patterns of the study area infrastructures were concentrated, clustered, and randomly self-clustered, respectively. In the meantime, factors such as legal, policy, and institutional infrastructure criteria were identified as key drivers influencing the spatial distribution of the province infrastructures. Therefore, it is possible to realize the future models in three scenarios of high desirability (green status), acceptable (yellow status), and crisis (red status). Finally, the paper concludes with some suggestions to increase the desirability of infrastructures in Khorasan Razavi province.