Estimating actual COVID-19 case numbers using cumulative death count-A method of measuring effectiveness of lockdown of non-essential activities: a South African case study

摘要

Estimating the number of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals at any specific time point is always a challenge due to asymptomatic cases, the incubation period and testing delays. Here we use an empirical analysis of cumulative death count, transmission-to-death time lag, and infection fatality rate (IFR) to evaluate and estimate the actual cases at a specific time point as a strategy of tracking the spread of COVID-19.